A Second-Round Voter Runoff is Likely
President Glafcos Clerides is now in a statistical dead heat with his principal rival in the coming presidential elections, to be held Feb. 8, according to a series of opinion polls as the race enters its final week.

In the first round the top two candidates are neck and neck, with AKEL- and DIKO-backed former Foreign Minister George Iacovou and President Clerides both drawing support of slightly over 35 percent. The polls predict that in a probable second round on Feb. 15, mandated by law if no candidate wins an outright majority, the race is still too close to call.

A record number of candidates are in the contest for the highest office of the Republic. The seventh presidential elections will be contested by seven candidates, among whom are political leaders who have been in the limelight of the Republic's political life since its establishment 37 years ago.

President Clerides and socialist EDEK leader Vassos Lyssarides were among the first members of the House of Representatives in 1960, when the Republic was established, and both have played an active role in Cyprus politics ever since.

Under the 1960 Constitution, the executive power is exercised by the President of the Republic, elected by universal suffrage for a five-year term of office. The President exercises executive power through a Council of Ministers appointed by him.

The first presidential elections were held in August 1960, when Britain relinquished its colonial rule over the island and Cyprus gained independence. Archbishop Makarios III was elected Head of the Republic, with 67 percent of the vote against his contestant lawyer, Ioannis Clerides, father of the current President and candidate for the February elections, Glafcos Clerides.

The polls show that of the other candidates, EDEK's Lyssarides would garner about 9 percent in the first round, former president George Vassiliou 6 percent, former DIKO deputy Alexis Galanos 4 percent, Liberal leader Nicos Rolandis one percent and New Horizons leader Nicos Koutsou 2 percent. Over 5 percent polled were undecided, while 2.3 percent said they planned to cast blank ballots.

It is significant that of the 16,938 young people aged 18-20, allowed to vote for the first time after a change in the electoral law dropping the voting age, 50.6 percent support Clerides, a man almost four times their age.

In the second round, the polls said Clerides and Iacovou are both in the 44 percent range. Close to 3.5 percent said they would cast a blank vote in the second round. Sixty-three percent of those intending to vote for Vassiliou in the first round say they will give their votes to Iacovou in a second, while only 12.8 percent will give it to Clerides. Twenty percent remain undecided on the second round.

The Cyprus problem figures prominently in determining voters' choices, with 38.5 percent of those polled saying they would consider how it was handled above the candidates' political or personal characteristics.

Almost half those polled believe the government is correctly handling the Cyprus problem; 29.2 percent said it had a so-so approach and 20 percent said its handling of the issue was inadequate.

Of all those polled, just 38.5 percent were very satisfied with Clerides's handling of the Cyprus problem, 18.9 percent with his handling of the economy and 24 percent with his handling of internal issues.

At the same time, those polled seemed to believe the President was still the best man for the job. On a list of issues and who would be better at handling them, 50.4 percent believe Clerides is the best for defense and Iacovou and Lyssarides distant seconds with 25.2 and 22.6 percent respectively. Clerides is also voted best person to handle the EU issue, gaining the endorsement of 53.5 percent of those polled.

Almost half a million Cypriots will vote in the Feb. 8 elections, more than half of them women. According to official figures released by the government, 446,731 Cypriots are eligible to vote, of which 219,313 are men and 227,418 women.

While there is a larger number of women voting overall, the difference is concentrated in the 50-plus age group. The biggest male/female gap is among those in their 70s, where women outnumber men by 34,555 to 27,339. In the categories from 18 to 49, the majority of voters are men, though their lead is slight.

The largest group of voters, both male and female, is in the 30 to 39 category, making up 92,000 people, almost a fifth of the total.

Voting in Cyprus is compulsory and those who fail to do so can be fined.

Voting on Feb. 8 will take place at 1,023 polling stations around the island. Nicosia will have 379 centers, Limassol 318, Famagusta district 44, Larnaca 162 and Paphos 120.

The Humanitarian Affairs Office has also announced special arrangements whereby Red Cross vehicles will be at the U.N. checkpoints to collect enclaved people wishing to travel to free areas to vote.
 

U.S. Diplomacy to be Brought to Bear
Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides says he thinks the U.S. is now firmly convinced that the settlement of the protracted Cyprus problem is badly needed to bring stability to the region and improve Greco-Turkish relations.

Kasoulides was commenting on Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's recent pledge to press on with the search for a solution. I think, you know, we can't give up here,_ Albright told Reuters in an interview marking the anniversary of her first year in office.

The Secretary added: This is one of the difficult areas of the world. We are obviously concerned about Greek-Turkish maneuvering in the Aegean and about the lack of resolution of Cyprus._ She said the U.S. will keep Richard Holbrooke, who was appointed last year as President Clinton's special emissary for Cyprus, on the job.

Turkish troops have been occupying 37 percent of Cyprus territory since their invasion of the island in 1974, in violation of repeated United Nations resolutions calling for their withdrawal.

Government Spokesman, Manolis Christofides, said Albright's statement assured that the Cyprus issue remains a priority for U.S. diplomacy and that progress towards a settlement will be pressed in earnest.

Ambassador Tom Miller, Special Cyprus Coordinator at the State Department, visited Athens and Ankara in mid-January for top level meetings. The intent of the American diplomatic team is to be prepared to put forward a new initiative in March after the elections in Cyprus.

A four-member congressional delegation also visited the region last month and promised renewed American efforts to achieve a solution.

Its leader, Rep. John Edward Porter, said in Nicosia: In Cyprus, our purpose is to try to do whatever we possibly can to aid the cause of reuniting this country and bring its people back together.

President Bill Clinton in his Jan. 15 bimonthly report to Congress on the Cyprus question said U.S. diplomacy continued at an intense pace, and that the administration would work closely with the European Union (EU) to seek a settlement as well as to support Cyprus's entry into the Union. The President recently told a press conference: I want a resolution to the Cyprus issue very badly.

Meanwhile, the new U.S. federal budget for fiscal year 1999 calls for funds, appropriated under the headings "Development Assistantce" and "Economic Support Fund," of no less than $15 million to be mnade available to Cyprus.

Separately, the U.S. has decided to abolish military loans to Turkey and Greece as of 1999, as part of the effort to reduce budget expenditures. The decision puts an end to decades of U.S. military aid to the two NATO members. These two nations use the loans to obtain weapons from the United States.
 

Progress on the Missing
On Jan. 23 information on the fate of some 600 missing Cypriots was exchanged at the United Nations-controlled Ledra Palace hotel on Nicosia's Green Line. The exchange was made between Cypriot Humanitarian Affairs Commissioner Takis Christopoulos and Turkish Cypriot representative Rustem Tatar, in the presence of United Nations Resident Representative in Cyprus Gustave Feissel.

During the meeting, Tatar handed over details relating to 400 of 1,619 missing Greek Cypriots, while Christopoulos passed information on some 200 of 803 Turkish Cypriots claimed to be missing since intercommunal troubles broke out on the island in 1963, and Turkey invaded in 1974 and occupied the island's northern third.

The exchange is a significant development in the 24-year-old issue of missing persons, as the information swapped is understood to include maps showing the location of possible mass graves.

This is the implementation of an agreement reached on July 31 by the two leaders and which has happened today,_ Feissel said after the meeting. It indicates the implementation of the agreement in good faith by both sides. He said both sides indicated they would continue their efforts to obtain information on the location of graves of more missing persons. He also said they had agreed to meet again soon to discuss arrangements leading to the return of remains of missing persons.

On the Greek Cypriot side, work on the information supplied by the Turkish side will begin shortly and it is hoped it can lead to the exhumation and identification of the remains. A DNA bank has already been set up at the bi-communal Institute of Neurology and Genetics in Nicosia, and samples have been taken from relatives of the missing. The identification process is, however, expected to be long, so relatives are likely to remain in the dark on the fate of their loved ones for some time to come.

Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan is shortly expected to name his new appointee to the Committee for Missing Persons (CMP). Paul Wurth, the previous U.N.-appointed member of the CMP, resigned three years ago and the U.N. said he would not be replaced until progress had been made on the issue of the missing.

The Secretary General's Spokesman, Fred Eckhard, said The S.G. welcomes the development. He noted Annan, has been in touch with the International Committee of the Red Cross concerning the selection of the third member of the CMP.
 

Cyprus & the EU: No Barriers to Accession
Britain, the current European Union (EU) president, and Greece have dismissed claims by Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini that a Cyprus solution is a precondition for the start of the island's EU accession talks.

Speaking before the EU Council of Ministers Gen- eral Affairs Council in Brussels on Jan. 26, where Mr. Dini's statements were made, British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said no such precondition exists.

He then reminded his European partners that, at their Luxembourg summit in December 1997, they decided to open accession talks with Cyprus in March 1998.

Said Cook: We regard Cyprus as one of the strongest candidates for membership. Among all the applicant countries, it has the highest standard of living and the best developed market economy. On the settlement question, he said: We welcome the willingness of the government of Cyprus to include Turkish Cypriots in the delegation for accession negotiations.

Stating that Cyprus has made substantial progress he added: But Cyprus is entitled to have its application for membership considered on its own strong merits, and its progress must not be conditional on a solution to the division of the island. We would like to see a bi-zonal, bi-communal, federal Cyprus join the EU. We will now work hard to take forward the accession of Cyprus.

Meanwhile, Greek Foreign Minister Theodoros Pangalos told Turkey's Milliyet newspaper that he saw no possibility of warfare between Turkey and Greece. He proposed the initiation of a new peaceful process for the solution of the Aegean dispute, and that the most easily-solved problems be addressed first.

Despite the recent setback of Turkey's bid for EU membership, Pangalos said that Athens wants the EU to open its doors to Turkey. We are suggesting all our disagreements be taken to The Hague, Pangalos said.

After meeting with his Turkish counterpart Ismail Cem on Jan. 27, German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel endorsed Pangalos's proposal that Greek-Turkish differences be taken to the International Court at The Hague. He added: The EU is not responsible for the problems which Turkey has created, such as the occupation of northern Cyprus in violation of international law, and the problem with the Kurds.
 

New Turkish Threats Raise Tension
The government of Cyprus has rejected new Turkish threats in response to a newly constructed air base at Paphos, saying that Cyprus had every right to defend itself. Government Spokesman Manolis Christofides said that Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash and Turkish officials were making threats although Cyprus was just boosting its legitimate defense capabilities.

A statement by the Turkish Foreign Ministry said the base poses a threat to peace and stability on the island: This dangerous development was brought to the attention of the U.N. Secretary General and the president of the Security Council.

Christofides responded: Turkey has brought tanks and other unprecedented military armaments to the island. We have a duty to take basic measures for our defense. The joint defense doctrine with Greece is our answer. Through it we will face all Turkish threats whatever they may be, wherever they may come from. It is the common position of Cyprus and Greece, he added.

In Washington, State Department Spokesman James Rubin said the U.S. was aware of the Turkish statements about putting before the Security Council concerns about the completion of this base, and added that, It's premature for us to comment, not having seen all the particulars.

Rubin continued: I can say this, that we remain concerned in general about the increasing militarization of Cyprus on both sides of the ceasefire line, and we urge all parties to avoid taking actions or making statements that result in increased tensions in the region and that detract from efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace on the island.

To boost its air defense in view of intensified Turkish provocations, the government of Cyprus decided in Jan. 1997 to acquire Russian-made surface to-air missiles, and build the air base. But the government has emphasized from the outset that they will not be used unless Cyprus is attacked. As Cypriot Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides recently stated, there would have been no need to construct the air base if Turkey had complied with United Nations Security Council Resolutions calling for the withdrawal of Turkish occupation troops from Cyprus.
 

House Approves Budget
 After a four-day debate, on Jan. 12, the House of Representatives approved the three 1998 state budgets. Expenditures will total 1.63 billion Cyprus pounds ($1 = 0.536) while revenues are forecast to reach 1.08 billion pounds. All key economic indicators are in line with Maastricht Treaty Guidelines, with the exception of the fiscal deficit, which was 4.2 percent last year. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow at a healthy 5 percent in 1998.

In presenting the budget, Finance Minister Christodoulos Christodoulou noted the country is enjoying strong growth. He said the number of portable phone users has climbed to 90,000 from 9,000 in 1992, and that 380,000 Cypriots traveled abroad last year, up from 270,000 in 1992.
 

Good for Business
Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides has announced a series of government measures to help boost the Cyprus Stock Exchange (CSE) and promote it as a regional financial center.

He made his proposals at a Cyprus-Greece Stock Exchange Symposium in Nicosia, attended by officials, stockbrokers and investors from both countries.

President Clerides pledged three new bills would soon be tabled and acted upon by the House of Representatives to deal with the measures aimed to upgrade CSE.

The first bill enables offshore companies to invest in CSE listed companies' stocks, without loosing their special tax status and their income from these investments will not be taxed.

The second bill provides for a 50 percent decrease in taxes paid by companies seeking to list in the CSE in the next five years, from the day their titles are introduced.

The third bill ensures that the cost of acquisition of newly-listed shares will be partly exempt from tax for four years instead of two years. Also Greek companies will now be allowed to seek a CSE listing, which will soon offer new opportunities to Cypriot investors.

The President said the bills are expected to come into force in March and stressed the government's determination to upgrade the CSE. He noted that the new regulations offer Greek businesspeople the chance to become more financially active in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union republics and the Middle East.
 

Tourist Boom
The tourism industry is providing 20 percent of Cyprus's GDP, and the outlook for 1998 is bright. Cyprus Tourism Office (CTO) Chairman Andreas Erotokritou said on Jan. 28 that 2.06 million tourists visited the island last year.

Foreign currency earnings from tourism in 1997 reached 825 million pounds, up from 780 million pounds the previous year. The number of overnight stays increased by 3.6 percent to 13.6 million, while average foreign currency spending per tourist increased by 3.1 percent to 393.5 pounds.

The CTO has a 10-year plan to upgrade the industry emphasizing agrotourism, conference tourism and sports and cultural tourism.
 

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